The unknown unknown: A framework for assessing environmental DNA assay specificity against unsampled taxa.

Taxon-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays are commonly used for environmental DNA sampling-based inference of animal presence. These assays require thorough validation to ensure that amplification truly indicates detection of the target taxon, but a thorough validation is difficult when there are potentially many non-target taxa, some of which may have incomplete taxonomies. Here, we use a previously published, quantitative model of cross-amplification risk to describe a framework for assessing qPCR assay specificity when there is missing information and it is not possible to assess assay specificity for each individual non-target confamilial. In this framework, we predict assay specificity against unsampled taxa (non-target taxa without sequence data available) using the sequence information that is available for other confamilials. We demonstrate this framework using four case study assays for: (1) An endemic, freshwater arthropod (meltwater stonefly; Lednia tumana), (2) a globally distributed, marine ascidian (Didemnum perlucidum), (3) a continentally distributed freshwater crustacean (virile crayfish; Faxonius virilis, deanae and nais species complex) and (4) a globally distributed freshwater teleost (common carp; Cyprinus carpio and its close relative C. rubrofuscus). We tested the robustness of our approach to missing information by simulating application of our framework for all possible subsamples of 20-all non-target taxa. Our results suggest that the modelling framework results in estimates which are largely concordant with observed levels of cross-amplification risk using all available sequence data, even when there are high levels of data missingness. We explore potential limitations and extensions of this approach for assessing assay specificity and provide users with an R Markdown template for generating reproducible reports to support their own assay validation efforts.

eDNAssay: A machine learning tool that accurately predicts qPCR cross-amplification.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is a highly sensitive and cost-effective technique for wildlife monitoring, notably through the use of qPCR assays. However, it can be difficult to ensure assay specificity when many closely related species co-occur. In theory, specificity may be assessed in silico by determining whether assay oligonucleotides have enough base-pair mismatches with nontarget sequences to preclude amplification. However, the mismatch qualities required are poorly understood, making in silico assessments difficult and often necessitating extensive in vitro testing-typically the greatest bottleneck in assay development. Increasing the accuracy of in silico assessments would therefore streamline the assay development process. In this study, we paired 10 qPCR assays with 82 synthetic gene fragments for 530 specificity tests using SYBR Green intercalating dye (n = 262) and TaqMan hydrolysis probes (n = 268). Test results were used to train random forest classifiers to predict amplification. The primer-only model (SYBR Green results) and full-assay model (TaqMan probe-based results) were 99.6% and 100% accurate, respectively, in cross-validation. We further assessed model performance using six independent assays not used in model training. In these tests the primer-only model was 92.4% accurate (n = 119) and the full-assay model was 96.5% accurate (n = 144). The high performance achieved by these models makes it possible for eDNA practitioners to more quickly and confidently develop assays specific to the intended target. Practitioners can access the full-assay model online via eDNAssay (https://NationalGenomicsCenter.shinyapps.io/eDNAssay), a user-friendly tool for predicting qPCR cross-amplification.

Ultrasound imaging identifies life history variation in resident Cutthroat Trout.

Human activities that fragment fish habitat have isolated inland salmonid populations. This isolation is associated with loss of migratory life histories and declines in population density and abundance. Isolated populations exhibiting only resident life histories may be more likely to persist if individuals can increase lifetime reproductive success by maturing at smaller sizes or earlier ages. Therefore, accurate estimates of age and size at maturity across resident salmonid populations would improve estimates of population viability. Commonly used methods for assessing maturity such as dissection, endoscopy and hormone analysis are invasive and may disturb vulnerable populations. Ultrasound imaging is a non-invasive method that has been used to measure reproductive status across fish taxa. However, little research has assessed the accuracy of ultrasound for determining maturation status of small-bodied fish, or reproductive potential early in a species' reproductive cycle. To address these knowledge gaps, we tested whether ultrasound imaging could be used to identify maturing female Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi). Our methods were accurate at identifying maturing females reared in a hatchery setting up to eight months prior to spawning, with error rates ≤ 4.0%; accuracy was greater for larger fish. We also imaged fish in a field setting to examine variation in the size of maturing females among six wild, resident populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in western Montana. The median size of maturing females varied significantly across populations. We observed oocyte development in females as small as 109 mm, which is smaller than previously documented for this species. Methods tested in this study will allow researchers and managers to collect information on reproductive status of small-bodied salmonids without disrupting fish during the breeding season. This information can help elucidate life history traits that promote persistence of isolated salmonid populations.

Recent evolutionary history predicts population but not ecosystem-level patterns.

In the face of rapid anthropogenic environmental change, it is increasingly important to understand how ecological and evolutionary interactions affect the persistence of natural populations. Augmented gene flow has emerged as a potentially effective management strategy to counteract negative consequences of genetic drift and inbreeding depression in small and isolated populations. However, questions remain about the long-term impacts of augmented gene flow and whether changes in individual and population fitness are reflected in ecosystem structure, potentiating eco-evolutionary feedbacks. In this study, we used Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) in experimental outdoor mesocosms to assess how populations with different recent evolutionary histories responded to a scenario of severe population size reduction followed by expansion in a high-quality environment. We also investigated how variation in evolutionary history of the focal species affected ecosystem dynamics. We found that evolutionary history (i.e., gene flow vs. no gene flow) consistently predicted variation in individual growth. In addition, gene flow led to faster population growth in populations from one of the two drainages, but did not have measurable impacts on the ecosystem variables we measured: zooplankton density, algal growth, and decomposition rates. Our results suggest that benefits of gene flow may be long-term and environment-dependent. Although small in replication and duration, our study highlights the importance of eco-evolutionary interactions in determining population persistence and sets the stage for future work in this area.

An experimental test of alternative population augmentation scenarios.

Human land use is fragmenting habitats worldwide and inhibiting dispersal among previously connected populations of organisms, often leading to inbreeding depression and reduced evolutionary potential in the face of rapid environmental change. To combat this augmentation of isolated populations with immigrants is sometimes used to facilitate demographic and genetic rescue. Augmentation with immigrants that are genetically and adaptively similar to the target population effectively increases population fitness, but if immigrants are very genetically or adaptively divergent, augmentation can lead to outbreeding depression. Despite well-cited guidelines for the best practice selection of immigrant sources, often only highly divergent populations remain, and experimental tests of these riskier augmentation scenarios are essentially nonexistent. We conducted a mesocosm experiment with Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) to test the multigenerational demographic and genetic effects of augmenting 2 target populations with 3 types of divergent immigrants. We found no evidence of demographic rescue, but we did observe genetic rescue in one population. Divergent immigrant treatments tended to maintain greater genetic diversity, abundance, and hybrid fitness than controls that received immigrants from the source used to seed the mesocosms. In the second population, divergent immigrants had a slightly negative effect in one treatment, and the benefits of augmentation were less apparent overall, likely because this population started with higher genetic diversity and a lower reproductive rate that limited genetic admixture. Our results add to a growing consensus that gene flow can increase population fitness even when immigrants are more highly divergent and may help reduce uncertainty about the use of augmentation in conservation.